Dairy Market Weekly Wrap: All-Milk Price Forecast Raised to $19.90 as Butter and SMP Firm

Dairy Market Weekly Wrap: All-Milk Price Forecast Raised to \$19.90 as Butter and SMP Firm

The mid-September dairy reports have delivered a notably more constructive picture than earlier in 2026. According to the latest USDA Dairy Market News for the week of September 14–18, 2026, the 2026 all-milk price forecast has been raised to \$19.90 per cwt—a signal that the market is finding firmer footing heading into the final quarter.

A Firmer Price Floor

The upward revision to the all-milk price reflects improving fundamentals across several product categories. This shift comes after a year in which supply growth initially pressured prices, with the mid-year market described as 'a supply glut meeting resilient protein demand.' The revised forecast suggests that supply and demand are now rebalancing more favorably.

1. Butter and SMP: Steady Gains

The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026–2035 supports this constructive view. It projects that butter and Skim Milk Powder (SMP) prices will increase slightly in nominal terms in 2026, with that increase expected to continue over the projection period. For B2B buyers, this implies that the favorable butterfat buying window seen earlier in 2026 may gradually narrow, while SMP remains structurally supported by protein demand.

2. The Export Story: Butter Leads, Whey Follows

Export data continues to tell a story of divergence. Butter exports have surged dramatically—up nearly 150% year-over-year in recent reporting—while cheese exports have grown by over 15%. Milk powder and whey exports have lagged in volume terms, even as prices for whey and functional proteins have soared. This reflects a market where value growth is concentrated in high-protein and premium fat categories.

3. What It Means for Q4 Planning

Three takeaways for procurement teams:

• Protect against upside risk: With forecasts being revised upward, waiting for price declines may be risky. Consider locking in Q4–Q1 requirements.
• Balance the portfolio: Firmer butter and SMP pricing argues for spreading exposure across protein and fat categories rather than concentrating bets.
• Prioritize reliable partners: In a rebalancing market, supply continuity and quality consistency matter more than chasing the lowest spot price.

Jinfu Dairy: Steady Supply in a Rebalancing Market

Jinfu Dairy provides B2B partners with a balanced portfolio spanning Skimmed and Full Cream Milk Powders, butter and fat ingredients, and premium whey proteins. Our multi-source supply chain and digital traceability help you navigate pricing shifts with confidence.

Did you know?

The OECD-FAO outlook expects nominal butter and SMP prices to continue rising over the long-term projection period, driven by sustained demand growth in emerging markets.

Plan Ahead with Jinfu Dairy

As the market rebalances, preparation is your best protection. Explore Jinfu Dairy's portfolio and let our team help you build a resilient Q4 sourcing strategy. Stay informed, stay strategic, and stay fueled with Jinfu Dairy!